2010 · Week 1

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

10·9

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

36.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapJets
  • +0.028EPA / play-0.019
  • 41.8%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback+0.015
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.056
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +2.93CPOE-4.95
  • 38.4%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate43.6%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.69
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. NYJ are 3-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYJ @ BAL10–23BAL
2022 · W1BAL @ NYJ24–9BAL
2019 · W15NYJ @ BAL21–42BAL
2016 · W7BAL @ NYJ16–24NYJ
2013 · W12NYJ @ BAL3–19BAL
2011 · W4NYJ @ BAL17–34BAL
2007 · W2NYJ @ BAL13–20BAL
2005 · W4NYJ @ BAL3–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:371-7Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 12:3036Field goal0–3
BALQ1 10:541658Turnover0–3
NYJQ1 1:38535Punt0–3
BALQ2 13:3230Punt0–3
NYJQ2 11:39522Field goal0–6
BALQ2 8:16816Turnover0–6
NYJQ2 4:5827Turnover0–6
BALQ2 4:091344Touchdown7–6
NYJQ2 0:0600End of half7–6
BALQ3 15:00614Punt7–6
NYJQ3 12:2937Punt7–6
BALQ3 11:37980Field goal10–6
NYJQ3 7:0737Punt10–6
BALQ3 4:4767Punt10–6
NYJQ3 1:55530Punt10–6
BALQ4 14:1932Punt10–6
NYJQ4 11:5935Field goal10–9
BALQ4 10:29931Punt10–9
NYJQ4 6:13416Punt10–9
BALQ4 4:27738Punt10–9
NYJQ4 1:37727Turnover on downs10–9
BALQ4 0:3600End of half10–9

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/3824801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice21432.00
Joe Flacco420.50
Willis McGahee6-2-0.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin7101100
Todd Heap611720
T.J. Houshmandzadeh14270
Derrick Mason25210
Ray Rice24190
Ed Dickson0100
Willis McGahee11-60

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez10/217400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaDainian Tomlinson11625.60
Brad Smith22713.50
Shonn Greene5183.60
Mark Sanchez252.50
Braylon Edwards144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery25180
LaDainian Tomlinson24160
Dustin Keller25130
Braylon Edwards1390
Shonn Greene1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.34