Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
36.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.028EPA / play-0.019
- 41.8%Success rate41.8%
- +0.133EPA / dropback+0.015
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.056
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- +2.93CPOE-4.95
- 38.4%Third-down rate40.2%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate43.6%
- 1.78Points / drive1.69
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–1 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. NYJ are 3-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/38 | 248 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 21 | 43 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 6 | -2 | -0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 10 | 110 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 6 | 11 | 72 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 10/21 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.34