2005 · Week 4
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -2
Total
37
Model margin
+1.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play+0.014
- 49.3%Success rate41.3%
- +0.205EPA / dropback+0.100
- +0.100EPA / rush-0.083
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- 40.1%Third-down rate43.1%
- 78.4%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.39Points / drive1.80
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.046EPA / play allowed-0.058
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 50 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 7:44 | 5 | 15 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| WAS | Q1 5:58 | 12 | 37 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 0:03 | 10 | 50 | Punt | 3–0 |
| WAS | Q2 10:46 | 16 | 85 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 2:39 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q2 0:39 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 54 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q3 9:36 | 7 | 33 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q3 7:19 | 8 | 85 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q3 4:10 | 9 | 49 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| SEA | Q3 0:03 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 10–17 |
| WAS | Q4 12:38 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 10–17 |
| SEA | Q4 7:42 | 15 | 96 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| WAS | Q4 1:23 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| SEA | Q4 0:49 | 2 | 4 | Missed field goal | 17–17 |
| WAS | OT | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 26/38 | 242 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 20 | 98 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 20/36 | 226 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 25 | 90 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+1.52