2005 · Week 4

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

17·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Mark Brunell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

WAS -2

Total

37

Model margin

+1.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCommanders
  • +0.156EPA / play+0.014
  • 49.3%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.205EPA / dropback+0.100
  • +0.100EPA / rush-0.083
  • 11.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 40.1%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 78.4%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.80
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.046EPA / play allowed-0.058

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. WAS are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA
2011 · W12WAS @ SEA23–17WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck26/3824210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander20984.91
Matt Hasselbeck2168.00

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell20/3622621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis25903.60
Ladell Betts12352.90
Mark Brunell2168.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+1.52