Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
42
Model margin
-0.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play-0.074
- 34.0%Success rate40.7%
- -0.265EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.308
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.0%
- 25.0%Third-down rate38.3%
- 34.8%Red-zone TD rate42.5%
- 0.94Points / drive1.36
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 11/21 | 126 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 6/10 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 32/46 | 385 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 16 | 42 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-6.93
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.80