Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
42
Model margin
-0.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play-0.074
- 34.0%Success rate40.7%
- -0.265EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.308
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.0%
- 25.0%Third-down rate38.3%
- 34.8%Red-zone TD rate42.5%
- 0.94Points / drive1.36
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 1 | -10 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 14:51 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:32 | 12 | 61 | Opp touchdown | 14–0 |
| ARI | Q1 7:57 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 14–0 |
| SF | Q1 5:13 | 7 | 16 | Punt | 14–0 |
| ARI | Q1 1:36 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 14–0 |
| SF | Q1 0:07 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–0 |
| ARI | Q2 13:42 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| SF | Q2 8:46 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 14–3 |
| ARI | Q2 6:39 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| SF | Q2 2:44 | 5 | 49 | Turnover | 14–6 |
| ARI | Q2 1:08 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–12 |
| SF | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–12 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 14–12 |
| ARI | Q3 12:14 | 5 | 47 | Field goal | 14–15 |
| SF | Q3 8:57 | 4 | 28 | Turnover | 14–15 |
| ARI | Q3 6:45 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 14–18 |
| SF | Q3 2:41 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–18 |
| ARI | Q3 1:16 | 6 | 31 | Field goal | 14–21 |
| SF | Q4 13:14 | 1 | -13 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| SF | Q4 13:04 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 14–21 |
| ARI | Q4 11:16 | 5 | 35 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| SF | Q4 8:29 | 2 | -7 | Turnover | 14–28 |
| ARI | Q4 7:41 | 3 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 14–31 |
| SF | Q4 6:00 | 10 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 14–31 |
| ARI | Q4 3:11 | 7 | 30 | End of half | 14–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 11/21 | 126 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 6/10 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 32/46 | 385 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 16 | 42 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-6.93
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.80