Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
46
Model margin
+3.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. NYG are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/35 | 296 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 24 | 128 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.32
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.