Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
46
Model margin
+3.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYG are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 12:51 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 10:49 | 5 | 29 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q1 8:39 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| NYG | Q1 5:03 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LA | Q1 2:50 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 7–17 |
| NYG | Q1 1:21 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| LA | Q2 12:12 | 1 | 18 | Turnover | 7–24 |
| NYG | Q2 11:54 | 6 | 30 | Field goal | 7–27 |
| LA | Q2 9:25 | 11 | 62 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| NYG | Q2 4:05 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–27 |
| LA | Q2 3:05 | 6 | 33 | Field goal | 17–27 |
| NYG | Q2 1:47 | 6 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 17–27 |
| LA | Q2 0:38 | 4 | 31 | Missed field goal | 17–27 |
| NYG | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–27 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 53 | Turnover | 17–27 |
| NYG | Q3 8:45 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 17–34 |
| LA | Q3 5:19 | 11 | 54 | Turnover | 17–34 |
| NYG | Q4 14:49 | 13 | 73 | Field goal | 17–37 |
| LA | Q4 8:27 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 24–37 |
| NYG | Q4 5:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–37 |
| LA | Q4 3:45 | 5 | 28 | Turnover | 24–37 |
| NYG | Q4 2:29 | 3 | 23 | Touchdown | 24–44 |
| LA | Q4 1:52 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 24–44 |
| NYG | Q4 0:25 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–44 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/35 | 296 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 24 | 128 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.32
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.