2005 · Week 5

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

20·23

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Byron Leftwich

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

38

Model margin

+4.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.026
  • 48.2%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback+0.113
  • +0.023EPA / rush-0.079
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 43.8%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.68
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%
  • +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.066

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 8-7-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN
2012 · W4CIN @ JAX27–10CIN

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer22/3323920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rudi Johnson18764.20
Chris Perry7557.90
Carson Palmer111.00

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich10/2416120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor241325.50
Alvin Pearman3155.00
Reggie Williams11010.00
Byron Leftwich500.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.76