2005 · Week 5

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

20·23

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Byron Leftwich

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

38

Model margin

+4.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.026
  • 48.2%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback+0.113
  • +0.023EPA / rush-0.079
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 43.8%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.68
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%
  • +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.066

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. JAX are 9-7-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4JAX @ CIN22–17JAX
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–JAX
CINQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:52551Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 10:31413Punt0–7
JAXQ1 9:0639Punt0–7
CINQ1 8:04841Punt0–7
JAXQ1 3:54515Field goal0–10
CINQ1 0:50535Punt0–10
JAXQ2 13:59854Field goal0–13
CINQ2 10:07956Touchdown7–13
JAXQ2 5:36939Punt7–13
CINQ2 1:3939Punt7–13
JAXQ2 0:0700End of half7–13
JAXQ3 15:00662Touchdown7–20
CINQ3 12:161051Field goal10–20
JAXQ3 7:0500Field goal10–20
CINQ3 6:58518Field goal13–20
JAXQ3 4:29416Punt13–20
CINQ3 2:39627Turnover on downs13–20
JAXQ4 14:20736Field goal13–23
CINQ4 9:4534Punt13–23
JAXQ4 8:41519Punt13–23
CINQ4 6:45483Touchdown20–23
JAXQ4 5:16524Punt20–23
CINQ4 2:42533Turnover20–23
JAXQ4 1:16421End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer22/3323920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rudi Johnson18764.20
Chris Perry7557.90
Carson Palmer111.00

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich10/2416120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor241325.50
Alvin Pearman3155.00
Reggie Williams11010.00
Byron Leftwich500.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.76