Closing spread
GB -3
Total
41
Model margin
+3.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play-0.059
- 41.1%Success rate42.0%
- -0.030EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.1%Explosive rate6.6%
- 38.7%Third-down rate41.1%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.11Points / drive1.29
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.8%
- +0.032EPA / play allowed-0.052
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 9/22 | 146 | 0 | 2 |
| Todd Bouman | 5/13 | 31 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 19/27 | 215 | 3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najeh Davenport | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Tony Fisher | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| ReShard Lee | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.60