2011 · Week 1

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

34·42

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -4.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPackers
  • +0.198EPA / play+0.230
  • 51.4%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.305EPA / dropback+0.405
  • +0.014EPA / rush-0.114
  • 10.8%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +7.27CPOE+8.47
  • 58.6%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 2.96Points / drive2.85
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NO @ GB0–34GB
2023 · W3NO @ GB17–18GB
2021 · W1GB @ NO3–38NO
2020 · W3GB @ NO37–30GB
2017 · W7NO @ GB26–17NO
2014 · W8GB @ NO23–44NO
2012 · W4NO @ GB27–28GB
2008 · W12GB @ NO29–51NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–GB
GBQ1 15:00976Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 10:08215Turnover0–7
GBQ1 9:29641Touchdown0–14
NOQ1 6:24680Touchdown7–14
GBQ1 3:31685Touchdown7–21
NOQ1 0:111476Field goal10–21
GBQ2 9:4430Opp touchdown17–21
GBQ2 8:371475Touchdown17–28
NOQ2 1:59835Punt17–28
GBQ2 0:3000End of half17–28
NOQ3 15:001455Field goal20–34
GBQ3 8:4000Touchdown20–35
NOQ3 8:26346Touchdown27–35
GBQ3 6:5437Punt27–35
NOQ3 5:57627Turnover on downs27–35
GBQ3 3:021293Touchdown27–42
NOQ4 11:503-4Punt27–42
GBQ4 10:27717Punt27–42
NOQ4 5:351276Touchdown34–42
GBQ4 2:1536Punt34–42
NOQ4 1:08771End of half34–42

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees32/4941930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram13403.10
Pierre Thomas5316.20
Darren Sproles273.50
Drew Brees133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devery Henderson691001
Marques Colston69810
Darren Sproles79750
Robert Meachem58701
Jimmy Graham47561
Pierre Thomas45370
David Thomas0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/3531230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks12574.81
Ryan Grant9404.40
Aaron Rodgers410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings78891
Jordy Nelson68771
Jermichael Finley34530
Donald Driver47410
Randall Cobb22351
Ryan Grant1150
Tom Crabtree1140
James Jones1110
James Starks0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

48.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.46