Closing spread
GB -4.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.198EPA / play+0.230
- 51.4%Success rate48.2%
- +0.305EPA / dropback+0.405
- +0.014EPA / rush-0.114
- 10.8%Explosive rate10.2%
- +7.27CPOE+8.47
- 58.6%Third-down rate48.7%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
- 2.96Points / drive2.85
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 32/49 | 419 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devery Henderson | 6 | 9 | 100 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 6 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 5 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/35 | 312 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Ryan Grant | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 7 | 8 | 89 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 6 | 8 | 77 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| James Starks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
48.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.46