Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
54
Model margin
+4.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.094EPA / play+0.102
- 47.2%Success rate46.3%
- +0.160EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.89CPOE+5.43
- 43.1%Third-down rate42.8%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
- 2.17Points / drive2.11
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 35/54 | 446 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 9 | 13 | 153 | 1 |
| Joseph Morgan | 1 | 1 | 80 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 7 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 7 | 15 | 67 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 31/41 | 319 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 18 | 84 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Graham Harrell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 8 | 12 | 93 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| James Jones | 5 | 6 | 56 | 2 |
| Jermichael Finley | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.03