2012 · Week 4

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

27·28

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

54

Model margin

+4.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPackers
  • +0.094EPA / play+0.102
  • 47.2%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.160EPA / dropback+0.222
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.89CPOE+5.43
  • 43.1%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 73.6%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
  • 2.17Points / drive2.11
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NO @ GB0–34GB
2023 · W3NO @ GB17–18GB
2021 · W1GB @ NO3–38NO
2020 · W3GB @ NO37–30GB
2017 · W7NO @ GB26–17NO
2014 · W8GB @ NO23–44NO
2011 · W1NO @ GB34–42GB
2008 · W12GB @ NO29–51NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–GB
GBQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:4239Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:06762Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 9:021190Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 3:331175Touchdown7–14
NOQ2 14:15832Punt7–14
GBQ2 10:581578Touchdown7–21
NOQ2 4:501480Touchdown14–21
GBQ2 0:2714End of half14–21
NOQ3 15:001465Field goal17–21
NOQ3 9:4300Field goal17–21
GBQ3 9:41335Turnover17–21
GBQ3 8:4110Turnover17–21
GBQ3 8:36432Turnover17–21
GBQ3 6:1334Turnover17–21
NOQ3 5:10492Touchdown24–21
GBQ3 3:49432Turnover24–21
NOQ3 2:351057Field goal27–21
GBQ4 13:04622Punt27–21
NOQ4 10:4630Punt27–21
GBQ4 10:25757Touchdown27–28
NOQ4 7:001149Missed field goal27–28
GBQ4 2:49315End of half27–28

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees35/5444630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles5204.00
Pierre Thomas9141.60
Mark Ingram5112.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston9131531
Joseph Morgan11801
Jimmy Graham79760
Lance Moore715670
Darren Sproles57441
Devery Henderson12100
David Thomas1260
Pierre Thomas23-10
Mark Ingram11-10

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers31/4131941

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson18844.70
Aaron Rodgers5132.60
Graham Harrell100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson812931
Randall Cobb78660
James Jones56562
Jermichael Finley45540
Cedric Benson44220
Tom Crabtree11160
Greg Jennings1391
Donald Driver1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.03