2020 · Week 3

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

37·30

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -3.5

Total

52

Model margin

+0.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapSaints
  • +0.221EPA / play+0.096
  • 50.7%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.353EPA / dropback+0.140
  • +0.025EPA / rush+0.039
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +6.90CPOE+2.58
  • 50.7%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 86.4%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
  • 2.98Points / drive2.72
  • 0.9%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. NO are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NO @ GB0–34GB
2023 · W3NO @ GB17–18GB
2021 · W1GB @ NO3–38NO
2017 · W7NO @ GB26–17NO
2014 · W8GB @ NO23–44NO
2012 · W4NO @ GB27–28GB
2011 · W1NO @ GB34–42GB
2008 · W12GB @ NO29–51NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NO
NOQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:08930Field goal3–0
NOQ1 7:30477Touchdown3–7
GBQ1 5:071145Field goal6–7
NOQ2 14:123-6Punt6–7
GBQ2 11:59350Touchdown13–7
NOQ2 10:321159Field goal13–10
GBQ2 4:28415Punt13–10
NOQ2 2:401256Touchdown13–17
GBQ2 0:0600End of half13–17
GBQ3 15:00775Touchdown20–17
NOQ3 12:581163Field goal20–20
GBQ3 5:55756Touchdown27–20
NOQ3 2:17470Touchdown27–27
GBQ3 0:33523Turnover on downs27–27
NOQ4 13:0725Turnover27–27
GBQ4 12:19626Field goal30–27
NOQ4 8:4735Punt30–27
GBQ4 6:36950Touchdown37–27
NOQ4 2:00759Field goal37–30
GBQ4 0:3200End of half37–30

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/3228330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones16694.31
Jamaal Williams6142.30
Aaron Rodgers2126.00
Tyler Ervin155.00
Allen Lazard1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard681461
Robert Tonyan55501
Jace Sternberger33360
Marcedes Lewis12181
Aaron Jones24170
Tyler Ervin2280
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1450
Jamaal Williams1130
Darrius Shepherd0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/3628830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray12584.80
Alvin Kamara6589.70
Taysom Hill263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alvin Kamara13141392
Emmanuel Sanders45561
Tre'Quan Smith46420
Jared Cook23210
Adam Trautman22170
Latavius Murray1170
Deonte Harty2350
Taysom Hill1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.82