Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
52
Model margin
+0.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.221EPA / play+0.096
- 50.7%Success rate47.7%
- +0.353EPA / dropback+0.140
- +0.025EPA / rush+0.039
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.5%
- +6.90CPOE+2.58
- 50.7%Third-down rate46.0%
- 86.4%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 2.98Points / drive2.72
- 0.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. NO are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/32 | 283 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 6 | 8 | 146 | 1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 5 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Jace Sternberger | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Darrius Shepherd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/36 | 288 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 58 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 14 | 139 | 2 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.82