2021 · Week 1

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

3·38

Saints

New Orleans

QB Jameis Winston

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

GB -4

Total

49

Model margin

+1.9est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapSaints
  • +0.136EPA / play-0.063
  • 48.9%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.003
  • -0.003EPA / rush-0.147
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +4.71CPOE-5.00
  • 43.8%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 2.45Points / drive1.88
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. NO are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NO @ GB0–34GB
2023 · W3NO @ GB17–18GB
2020 · W3GB @ NO37–30GB
2017 · W7NO @ GB26–17NO
2014 · W8GB @ NO23–44NO
2012 · W4NO @ GB27–28GB
2011 · W1NO @ GB34–42GB
2008 · W12GB @ NO29–51NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NO
NOQ1 15:00849Field goal0–3
GBQ1 11:00713Punt0–3
NOQ1 7:091576Touchdown0–10
GBQ2 14:1858Punt0–10
NOQ2 11:071583Touchdown0–17
GBQ2 1:07649Field goal3–17
GBQ3 15:001255Turnover3–17
NOQ3 9:30615Punt3–17
GBQ3 6:1145Turnover3–17
NOQ3 4:33312Touchdown3–24
GBQ3 3:0749Turnover on downs3–24
NOQ3 1:35511Touchdown3–31
GBQ4 14:5449Punt3–31
NOQ4 13:00466Touchdown3–38
GBQ4 10:46627Punt3–38
NOQ4 7:01411Punt3–38
GBQ4 3:57954Turnover3–38
NOQ4 1:0100End of half3–38

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers15/2813302
Jordan Love5/76800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon4194.80
Kylin Hill5142.80
Aaron Jones591.80
Randall Cobb111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams57560
Randall Cobb11320
Marcedes Lewis11190
Amari Rodgers11190
Marquez Valdes-Scantling38170
Allen Lazard24160
Malik Taylor23140
Aaron Jones22130
Robert Tonyan2480
AJ Dillon1270

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston14/2014850
Taysom Hill1/1300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara20834.20
Tony Jones11504.50
Jameis Winston6376.20
Taysom Hill210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deonte Harty22721
Juwan Johnson33212
Adam Trautman36180
Marquez Callaway12140
Chris Hogan11101
Alvin Kamara3481
Ty Montgomery1150
Tony Jones1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.88