Closing spread
GB -4
Total
49
Model margin
+1.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.136EPA / play-0.063
- 48.9%Success rate41.1%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.003
- -0.003EPA / rush-0.147
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- +4.71CPOE-5.00
- 43.8%Third-down rate36.1%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 2.45Points / drive1.88
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. NO are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15/28 | 133 | 0 | 2 |
| Jordan Love | 5/7 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kylin Hill | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Malik Taylor | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 14/20 | 148 | 5 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 20 | 83 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 2 | 72 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 3 | 21 | 2 |
| Adam Trautman | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.88