2017 · Week 7

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

26·17

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Hundley

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NO -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPackers
  • +0.092EPA / play-0.023
  • 45.3%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.140EPA / dropback-0.019
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.032
  • 12.4%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +4.74CPOE-1.27
  • 38.5%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 2.37Points / drive1.77
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NO @ GB0–34GB
2023 · W3NO @ GB17–18GB
2021 · W1GB @ NO3–38NO
2020 · W3GB @ NO37–30GB
2014 · W8GB @ NO23–44NO
2012 · W4NO @ GB27–28GB
2011 · W1NO @ GB34–42GB
2008 · W12GB @ NO29–51NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–GB
GBQ1 15:00670Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 13:001255Turnover0–7
GBQ1 6:2739Punt0–7
NOQ1 4:58449Turnover0–7
GBQ1 2:4236Punt0–7
NOQ1 0:44753Touchdown7–7
GBQ2 12:31960Touchdown7–14
NOQ2 8:37632Punt7–14
GBQ2 5:49630Punt7–14
NOQ2 2:53618Punt7–14
GBQ2 1:23820Missed field goal7–14
NOQ2 0:01118End of half7–14
NOQ3 15:00759Touchdown13–14
GBQ3 11:24517Punt13–14
NOQ3 8:481084Field goal16–14
GBQ3 4:08938Field goal16–17
NOQ4 14:50860Field goal19–17
GBQ4 10:2136Punt19–17
NOQ4 8:25841Touchdown26–17
GBQ4 4:5534Turnover26–17
NOQ4 4:20419End of half26–17

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees27/3833112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram221054.81
Alvin Kamara9576.30
Drew Brees5-1-0.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ted Ginn771410
Michael Thomas711820
Alvin Kamara57500
Brandon Coleman23311
Coby Fleener23220
Mark Ingram4550
Tommylee Lewis0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Hundley12/258701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones171317.71
Brett Hundley34414.71
Ty Montgomery461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martellus Bennett23170
Randall Cobb24150
Geronimo Allison12140
Jordy Nelson14130
Davante Adams25120
Ty Montgomery1290
Aaron Jones3570

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.7%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.24