Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.092EPA / play-0.023
- 45.3%Success rate45.2%
- +0.140EPA / dropback-0.019
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.032
- 12.4%Explosive rate6.2%
- +4.74CPOE-1.27
- 38.5%Third-down rate39.5%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 2.37Points / drive1.77
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/38 | 331 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 22 | 105 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 57 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 7 | 7 | 141 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 7 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Hundley | 12/25 | 87 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 17 | 131 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Brett Hundley | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.7%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.98
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.24