2024 · Week 16

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Jake Haener

0·34

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

GB -14

Total

44

Model margin

+9.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

3.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPackers
  • -0.057EPA / play+0.081
  • 40.6%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.071EPA / dropback+0.182
  • -0.036EPA / rush-0.030
  • 8.5%Explosive rate11.7%
  • -3.67CPOE+1.37
  • 36.3%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.72Points / drive2.38
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3NO @ GB17–18GB
2021 · W1GB @ NO3–38NO
2020 · W3GB @ NO37–30GB
2017 · W7NO @ GB26–17NO
2014 · W8GB @ NO23–44NO
2012 · W4NO @ GB27–28GB
2011 · W1NO @ GB34–42GB
2008 · W12GB @ NO29–51NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–GB
GBQ1 15:001058Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 8:41626Punt0–7
GBQ1 5:381791Touchdown0–14
NOQ2 11:4335Punt0–14
GBQ2 9:25667Touchdown0–21
NOQ2 6:28632Turnover0–21
GBQ2 2:4536Punt0–21
NOQ2 1:49918End of half0–21
NOQ3 15:00519Punt0–21
GBQ3 12:14947Field goal0–24
NOQ3 7:03943Turnover0–24
GBQ3 2:11733Punt0–24
NOQ4 13:07413Punt0–24
GBQ4 11:50856Field goal0–27
NOQ4 7:13513Turnover on downs0–27
GBQ4 5:44748Touchdown0–34
NOQ4 2:41827Turnover on downs0–34
GBQ4 1:1100End of half0–34

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spencer Rattler15/3015301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Spencer Rattler5285.60
Jordan Mims4164.00
Kendre Miller8151.90
Jamaal Williams382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Foster Moreau23330
Dante Pettis27310
Juwan Johnson22270
Kevin Austin Jr.14170
Kendre Miller22160
Jordan Mims58160
Cedrick Wilson Jr.11130
Mason Tipton0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love16/2818210
Malik Willis1/23400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs13695.31
Emanuel Wilson11524.71
Christian Watson22311.50
Chris Brooks6233.81
Bo Melton11414.00
Jayden Reed155.00
Jordan Love122.00
Tucker Kraft122.00
Malik Willis3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jayden Reed34760
Tucker Kraft34630
Josh Jacobs44380
Romeo Doubs23200
Dontayvion Wicks37131
Emanuel Wilson1140
Chris Brooks1120
Bo Melton0100
Christian Watson0100
Luke Musgrave0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +146.8%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

73.3%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.84
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+9.48