Closing spread
GB -14
Total
44
Model margin
+9.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.081
- 40.6%Success rate44.8%
- -0.071EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.036EPA / rush-0.030
- 8.5%Explosive rate11.7%
- -3.67CPOE+1.37
- 36.3%Third-down rate37.6%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.72Points / drive2.38
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 15/30 | 153 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Jordan Mims | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 2 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jordan Mims | 5 | 8 | 16 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 16/28 | 182 | 1 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 1/2 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 69 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Christian Watson | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 4 | 76 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 3 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 3 | 7 | 13 | 1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.84
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.48