2023 · Week 3

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

17·18

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NO -1.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPackers
  • -0.015EPA / play+0.075
  • 42.2%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.054
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +1.94CPOE+1.07
  • 39.4%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.82Points / drive2.16
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NO @ GB0–34GB
2021 · W1GB @ NO3–38NO
2020 · W3GB @ NO37–30GB
2017 · W7NO @ GB26–17NO
2014 · W8GB @ NO23–44NO
2012 · W4NO @ GB27–28GB
2011 · W1NO @ GB34–42GB
2008 · W12GB @ NO29–51NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–GB
NOQ1 15:003-9Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:41523Turnover on downs0–0
NOQ1 10:44941Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 6:40732Punt7–0
NOQ1 3:12717Punt7–0
GBQ2 14:18720Opp touchdown14–0
GBQ2 10:301241Punt14–0
NOQ2 4:301382Field goal17–0
GBQ2 0:0600End of half17–0
GBQ3 15:0031Turnover17–0
NOQ3 13:1755Punt17–0
GBQ3 10:1746Punt17–0
NOQ3 8:52619Punt17–0
GBQ3 6:151282Turnover on downs17–0
NOQ4 14:5838Punt17–0
GBQ4 12:50646Field goal17–3
NOQ4 11:00530Punt17–3
GBQ4 8:27913Touchdown17–11
NOQ4 6:58312Punt17–11
GBQ4 5:23980Touchdown17–18
NOQ4 2:56747Missed field goal17–18
GBQ4 1:0500End of half17–18

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr13/1810310
Jameis Winston10/1610100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kendre Miller9343.80
Tony Jones8313.90
Taysom Hill4123.00
Rashid Shaheed100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave8111040
Michael Thomas69500
Tony Jones44210
Juwan Johnson24120
Taysom Hill1190
Jimmy Graham1181
Keith Kirkwood0100
Rashid Shaheed0200
Kendre Miller1100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love22/4425911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Love9394.31
AJ Dillon11333.00
Patrick Taylor362.00
Emanuel Wilson263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs512731
Jayden Reed37630
Luke Musgrave68490
Dontayvion Wicks46450
Patrick Taylor34230
Emanuel Wilson1160
Samori Toure0300
Malik Heath0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.91