Closing spread
NO -1.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play+0.075
- 42.2%Success rate45.1%
- +0.052EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.94CPOE+1.07
- 39.4%Third-down rate47.4%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.82Points / drive2.16
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 13/18 | 103 | 1 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 10/16 | 101 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendre Miller | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 8 | 11 | 104 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 6 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 22/44 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 5 | 12 | 73 | 1 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Samori Toure | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.91