Closing spread
NO -2
Total
55
Model margin
-0.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.142EPA / play+0.067
- 47.1%Success rate47.9%
- +0.317EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.043
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.7%
- +2.68CPOE+3.60
- 47.1%Third-down rate48.2%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 2.59Points / drive2.11
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. NO are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/39 | 418 | 1 | 2 |
| Matt Flynn | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 13 | 59 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 1 |
| James Starks | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 7 | 126 | 1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 8 | 9 | 123 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 7 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| James Starks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/32 | 311 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 24 | 172 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 7 | 94 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.13