2014 · Week 8

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

23·44

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -2

Total

55

Model margin

-0.1est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapSaints
  • +0.142EPA / play+0.067
  • 47.1%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.317EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.043
  • 11.3%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +2.68CPOE+3.60
  • 47.1%Third-down rate48.2%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 2.59Points / drive2.11
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. NO are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NO @ GB0–34GB
2023 · W3NO @ GB17–18GB
2021 · W1GB @ NO3–38NO
2020 · W3GB @ NO37–30GB
2017 · W7NO @ GB26–17NO
2012 · W4NO @ GB27–28GB
2011 · W1NO @ GB34–42GB
2008 · W12GB @ NO29–51NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NO
GBQ1 15:00585Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 12:57780Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 9:20667Field goal10–7
NOQ1 6:08933Field goal10–10
GBQ1 1:42959Field goal13–10
NOQ2 13:081469Field goal13–13
GBQ2 5:521081Field goal16–13
NOQ2 1:51756Field goal16–16
NOQ3 15:00748Turnover on downs16–16
GBQ3 11:46853Turnover16–16
NOQ3 7:38488Touchdown16–23
GBQ3 5:35620Turnover on downs16–23
NOQ3 3:32440Touchdown16–30
GBQ3 2:06739Turnover16–30
NOQ4 14:14842Touchdown16–37
GBQ4 9:511380Touchdown23–37
NOQ4 5:07532Touchdown23–44
GBQ4 3:1623Turnover23–44
NOQ4 2:4337Turnover23–44
GBQ4 1:1124End of half23–44

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers28/3941812
Matt Flynn1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy13594.50
Aaron Rodgers22110.51
James Starks252.50
DuJuan Harris242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb571261
Eddie Lacy891230
Davante Adams79750
Richard Rodgers45580
Jordy Nelson35250
Andrew Quarless23190
James Starks0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees27/3231130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram241727.21
Travaris Cadet177.00
Drew Brees166.00
Brandin Cooks144.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks67941
Jimmy Graham56591
Kenny Stills44570
Marques Colston45490
Travaris Cadet45400
Mark Ingram1230
Josh Hill1121

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.13