Closing spread
STL -3
Total
48
Model margin
-0.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 14:46 | 8 | 22 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 11:43 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 10:48 | 4 | 12 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 9:34 | 6 | 45 | Punt | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q1 5:40 | 4 | 45 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 3:44 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q1 2:43 | 3 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LA | Q1 1:37 | 10 | 82 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| SEA | Q2 13:49 | 12 | 91 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| LA | Q2 9:05 | 8 | 39 | Punt | 21–14 |
| SEA | Q2 4:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–14 |
| LA | Q2 3:06 | 3 | 52 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| SEA | Q2 2:02 | 8 | 60 | Field goal | 24–21 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 24–21 |
| LA | Q3 13:12 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 24–21 |
| SEA | Q3 10:57 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 27–21 |
| LA | Q3 9:23 | 3 | -5 | Turnover | 27–21 |
| SEA | Q3 7:55 | 4 | 44 | Touchdown | 34–21 |
| LA | Q3 6:15 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 34–28 |
| SEA | Q3 0:26 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 34–28 |
| LA | Q4 12:36 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 34–28 |
| SEA | Q4 11:13 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 37–28 |
| LA | Q4 7:32 | 9 | 66 | Field goal | 37–31 |
| SEA | Q4 3:54 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 37–31 |
| SEA | Q4 2:51 | 3 | 29 | End of half | 37–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 27/38 | 316 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 25 | 119 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.