Closing spread
HOU -1.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.099
- 40.6%Success rate40.0%
- -0.080EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.098
- 6.1%Explosive rate6.2%
- 34.5%Third-down rate34.0%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.17Points / drive1.30
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed+0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 25–24 since 1999
HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 15 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 5:54 | 12 | 64 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q2 14:38 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| HOU | Q2 12:47 | 10 | 64 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| TEN | Q2 7:09 | 9 | 47 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| HOU | Q2 2:20 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–6 |
| TEN | Q2 1:37 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 10–6 |
| HOU | Q2 0:46 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 10–6 |
| TEN | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 10–6 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 37 | Field goal | 10–9 |
| TEN | Q3 12:26 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–9 |
| HOU | Q3 10:54 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–9 |
| TEN | Q3 9:04 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 17–9 |
| HOU | Q3 6:06 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–9 |
| TEN | Q3 4:37 | 5 | 58 | Touchdown | 24–9 |
| HOU | Q3 2:16 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 24–9 |
| TEN | Q3 0:43 | 4 | 6 | Field goal | 27–9 |
| HOU | Q4 14:06 | 7 | 32 | Field goal | 27–12 |
| TEN | Q4 11:32 | 9 | 14 | Touchdown | 34–12 |
| HOU | Q4 7:45 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 34–12 |
| TEN | Q4 5:47 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 34–12 |
| HOU | Q4 4:37 | 8 | 52 | Touchdown | 34–20 |
| TEN | Q4 1:55 | 4 | 2 | Turnover on downs | 34–20 |
| HOU | Q4 0:52 | 3 | 1 | End of half | 34–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 22/31 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jarrett Payton | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 18/27 | 131 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 19 | 130 | 6.8 | 0 |
| David Carr | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.49