Closing spread
HOU -1.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.099
- 40.6%Success rate40.0%
- -0.080EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.098
- 6.1%Explosive rate6.2%
- 34.5%Third-down rate34.0%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.17Points / drive1.30
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed+0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 22/31 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jarrett Payton | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 18/27 | 131 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 19 | 130 | 6.8 | 0 |
| David Carr | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.49