Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
38
Model margin
+5.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.023
- 41.4%Success rate40.9%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.53CPOE+0.48
- 37.7%Third-down rate34.1%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 1.91Points / drive1.57
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 23/36 | 229 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 26 | 121 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Brown | 8 | 11 | 82 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 17/26 | 199 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 16 | 9 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treylon Burks | 3 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 9 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.95
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.70