2023 · Week 15 · Division

Final / OT

Texans

Houston

QB Case Keenum

19·16

Titans

Tennessee

QB Will Levis

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

38

Model margin

+5.7est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.023
  • 41.4%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -1.53CPOE+0.48
  • 37.7%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.57
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU
2022 · W8TEN @ HOU17–10TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
HOUQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:551183Touchdown0–6
HOUQ1 7:09517Punt0–6
TENQ1 4:39632Punt0–6
HOUQ1 1:18625Opp touchdown0–13
HOUQ2 13:56637Punt0–13
TENQ2 10:0669Punt0–13
HOUQ2 5:381366Field goal3–13
TENQ3 15:00515Turnover3–13
HOUQ3 12:171056Field goal6–13
TENQ3 6:273-17Punt6–13
HOUQ3 4:3756Field goal9–13
TENQ3 2:42526Punt9–13
HOUQ4 15:0049Punt9–13
TENQ4 12:13719Field goal9–16
HOUQ4 7:281159Touchdown16–16
TENQ4 3:03618Punt16–16
HOUQ4 1:45419Punt16–16
TENQ4 0:4531Punt16–16
HOUQ4 0:1535End of half16–16
TENOT613Punt16–16
HOUOT3-21Punt16–16
TENOT55Punt16–16
HOUOT454Field goal19–16

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum23/3622911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary261214.70
Dare Ogunbowale11717.00
Xavier Hutchinson155.00
Dameon Pierce133.00
Case Keenum210.50
Steven Sims111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Brown811821
Dalton Schultz45580
Devin Singletary45490
Robert Woods35300
Brevin Jordan11140
John Metchie III1110
Dare Ogunbowale0100
Steven Sims1100
Xavier Hutchinson0300

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis17/2619901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyjae Spears9303.30
Will Levis4256.31
Derrick Henry1690.60
Treylon Burks122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Treylon Burks33620
Chris Moore34390
Chig Okonkwo33360
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine12330
DeAndre Hopkins29210
Tyjae Spears1170
Derrick Henry4410

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.95
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.70