2025 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

16·13

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

HOU -5.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • -0.008EPA / play-0.148
  • 41.7%Success rate37.9%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback-0.165
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.117
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -1.68CPOE-3.50
  • 37.4%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 48.6%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.36
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU
2022 · W8TEN @ HOU17–10TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
HOUQ1 15:001556Turnover on downs0–0
TENQ1 8:201265Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 0:50527Punt0–3
TENQ2 13:35625Punt0–3
HOUQ2 9:491148Punt0–3
TENQ2 2:5131Punt0–3
HOUQ2 1:4737Punt0–3
TENQ2 0:4931Punt0–3
HOUQ2 0:0922End of half0–3
TENQ3 15:00737Field goal0–6
HOUQ3 10:45765Touchdown7–6
TENQ3 7:2137Punt7–6
HOUQ3 5:541049Field goal10–6
TENQ3 1:3268Turnover10–6
HOUQ4 13:3039Field goal13–6
TENQ4 11:593-1Punt13–6
HOUQ4 10:2836Punt13–6
TENQ4 9:3249Punt13–6
HOUQ4 7:123-2Punt13–6
TENQ4 4:571277Touchdown13–13
HOUQ4 1:35848Field goal16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills26/4127410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Woody Marks18442.40
Nick Chubb3175.70
Davis Mills2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins910921
Jayden Higgins47550
Dalton Schultz69510
Xavier Hutchinson35420
Jaylin Noel11120
Dare Ogunbowale1190
Woody Marks1170
Christian Kirk1460
Nick Chubb0200

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward24/3719410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Ward33311.00
Tony Pollard10222.20
Tyjae Spears430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chig Okonkwo33560
Tyjae Spears55310
Gunnar Helm45290
Van Jefferson37221
Mason Kinsey13140
Chimere Dike23140
Calvin Ridley11130
Elic Ayomanor26110
Tony Pollard3340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.91
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-1.33