Closing spread
HOU -5.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play-0.148
- 41.7%Success rate37.9%
- +0.083EPA / dropback-0.165
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.117
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.3%
- -1.68CPOE-3.50
- 37.4%Third-down rate32.0%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.05Points / drive1.36
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 26/41 | 274 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 9 | 10 | 92 | 1 |
| Jayden Higgins | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 24/37 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 7 | 22 | 1 |
| Mason Kinsey | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.91
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-1.33