2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

23·14

Titans

Tennessee

QB Mason Rudolph

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • -0.038EPA / play-0.104
  • 39.1%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback-0.056
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.175
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -2.77CPOE+0.11
  • 38.2%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 54.6%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.35
  • 1.6%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU
2022 · W8TEN @ HOU17–10TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
HOUQ1 15:001173Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 7:4332Punt7–0
HOUQ1 5:33629Punt7–0
TENQ1 1:40517Punt13–0
HOUQ2 14:07192Touchdown13–0
TENQ2 13:5531Punt13–0
HOUQ2 12:1535Punt13–0
TENQ2 10:4036Punt13–0
HOUQ2 9:03448Turnover13–0
TENQ2 6:361163Field goal13–3
HOUQ2 1:41716Field goal16–3
TENQ3 15:001253Field goal16–6
HOUQ3 6:471358Turnover on downs16–6
TENQ3 1:17544Opp touchdown23–6
TENQ4 13:50730Turnover on downs23–6
HOUQ4 11:2337Punt23–6
TENQ4 9:1034Punt23–6
HOUQ4 8:13517Punt23–6
TENQ4 5:41994Touchdown23–14
HOUQ4 2:41630End of half23–14

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills12/2212800
C.J. Stroud6/65010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce191769.31
Joe Mixon5234.60
Davis Mills3113.70
Dare Ogunbowale2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods23390
Nico Collins55381
Dalton Schultz33290
Dare Ogunbowale23260
John Metchie III24240
Diontae Johnson24120
Joe Mixon1150
Xavier Hutchinson1250
Dameon Pierce0200
Cade Stover0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis9/1717510
Mason Rudolph7/97000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard22622.80
Julius Chestnut2115.50
Will Levis482.00
Mason Rudolph155.00
Joshua Kelley122.00
Calvin Ridley2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley35760
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine47500
Tay Martin12491
Josh Whyle57290
Nick Vannett22260
Bryce Oliver13150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.20
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+2.34