Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.104
- 39.1%Success rate40.4%
- +0.008EPA / dropback-0.056
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.175
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- -2.77CPOE+0.11
- 38.2%Third-down rate38.0%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.84Points / drive1.35
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 12/22 | 128 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 6/6 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 19 | 176 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 5 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 9/17 | 175 | 1 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 7/9 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 22 | 62 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Tay Martin | 1 | 2 | 49 | 1 |
| Josh Whyle | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Bryce Oliver | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.20
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+2.34