2026 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

26·3

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

Nissan Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

HOU -6.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • +0.031EPA / play-0.124
  • 43.4%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.138EPA / dropback-0.123
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.126
  • 8.4%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +2.27CPOE-0.37
  • 37.8%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 60.4%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
  • 2.19Points / drive1.42
  • 0.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU
2022 · W8TEN @ HOU17–10TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
TENQ1 15:00853Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 10:39418Punt0–3
TENQ1 9:0130Punt0–3
HOUQ1 7:35959Field goal3–3
TENQ1 2:2223Turnover3–3
HOUQ1 1:44518Field goal6–3
TENQ2 13:33315Turnover6–3
HOUQ2 12:07959Field goal9–3
TENQ2 6:5633Punt9–3
HOUQ2 5:44739Field goal12–3
TENQ2 1:15617Punt12–3
HOUQ2 0:1000End of half12–3
HOUQ3 15:001889Touchdown19–3
TENQ3 6:371017Punt19–3
HOUQ3 2:10846Touchdown26–3
TENQ4 14:091447Turnover on downs26–3
HOUQ4 8:5343Punt26–3
TENQ4 5:491432Turnover on downs26–3
HOUQ4 0:1900End of half26–3

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud26/3426110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Woody Marks15624.10
David Montgomery5112.20
C.J. Stroud650.81
Jaylin Noel111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Hutchinson45650
Nico Collins57560
Jaylin Noel55411
Kayshon Boutte35380
Dalton Schultz34300
Woody Marks44230
Foster Moreau2380

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward23/3617001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard14523.70
Kalel Mullings133.00
Cam Ward122.00
Tyjae Spears200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wan'Dale Robinson67530
Calvin Ridley23330
Tyjae Spears99280
Chimere Dike34280
Elic Ayomanor12170
Carnell Tate1560
Daniel Bellinger1250
Tony Pollard0100
Kylen Granson0100
Gunnar Helm0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.45