Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Texansedge mapTitans
- +0.071EPA / play-0.141
- 48.1%Success rate44.0%
- +0.098EPA / dropback-0.152
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.096
- 8.9%Explosive rate4.0%
- +3.16CPOE+0.39
- 43.8%Third-down rate33.3%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.80Points / drive0.99
- 2.5%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.63