2023 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Will Levis

3·26

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -5

Total

44

Model margin

+2.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.023
  • 40.9%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.164
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +0.48CPOE-1.53
  • 34.1%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.91
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU
2022 · W8TEN @ HOU17–10TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
TENQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:041258Field goal0–3
TENQ1 7:17927Punt0–3
HOUQ1 2:401389Touchdown0–10
TENQ2 10:101-10Opp touchdown0–17
TENQ2 10:0249Punt0–17
HOUQ2 7:15644Field goal0–20
TENQ2 4:1736Punt0–20
HOUQ2 2:0136Punt0–20
TENQ2 1:11543Field goal3–20
HOUQ3 15:001171Field goal3–23
TENQ3 9:351771Turnover on downs3–23
HOUQ3 0:581037Punt3–23
TENQ4 10:21625Turnover on downs3–23
HOUQ4 7:3632Field goal3–26
TENQ4 5:3331Punt3–26
HOUQ4 3:5135Punt3–26
TENQ4 1:50311End of half3–26

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill16/2016800
Will Levis2/61600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry12423.50
Jonathan Ward3113.70
Tyjae Spears600.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins77720
Chig Okonkwo34340
Chris Moore13320
Tyjae Spears46290
Treylon Burks23110
Kevin Rader1160
Derrick Henry0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud24/3221310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary16805.00
Dameon Pierce8162.00
Nico Collins177.00
John Metchie III144.00
C.J. Stroud144.00
Dare Ogunbowale100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins78800
Robert Woods44580
Dalton Schultz24190
Brevin Jordan22191
Noah Brown1280
John Metchie III1380
Xavier Hutchinson2380
Devin Singletary3360
Dameon Pierce1150
Eric Saubert1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.58