Closing spread
HOU -5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.023
- 40.9%Success rate41.4%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.164
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.48CPOE-1.53
- 34.1%Third-down rate37.7%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.57Points / drive1.91
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 16/20 | 168 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 2/6 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Rader | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 24/32 | 213 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 7 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.58