2024 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Mason Rudolph

32·27

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -8

Total

40.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • -0.104EPA / play-0.038
  • 40.4%Success rate39.1%
  • -0.056EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.175EPA / rush-0.120
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.11CPOE-2.77
  • 38.0%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.84
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU
2022 · W8TEN @ HOU17–10TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00119Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 14:42528Field goal3–7
HOUQ1 11:15612Punt3–7
TENQ1 7:561089Touchdown10–7
HOUQ1 1:57418Punt10–7
TENQ2 14:476100Touchdown17–7
HOUQ2 11:031073Touchdown17–14
TENQ2 6:17623Turnover17–14
HOUQ2 3:24455Field goal17–17
TENQ2 1:47426Punt17–17
HOUQ2 0:4520Turnover17–17
TENQ2 0:373-18Field goal20–17
TENQ3 15:001139Field goal23–17
HOUQ3 9:0839Punt23–17
TENQ3 6:59612Punt23–17
HOUQ3 2:1920Turnover23–17
TENQ3 1:303-1Opp touchdown23–24
TENQ3 0:0443Punt23–24
HOUQ4 12:583-5Punt23–24
HOUQ4 11:2437Field goal23–27
TENQ4 9:46170Touchdown30–27
HOUQ4 9:35726Punt30–27
TENQ4 6:173-4Punt30–27
HOUQ4 5:22854Missed field goal30–27
TENQ4 1:5334Punt30–27
HOUQ4 1:293-8Safety32–27
TENQ4 1:1300End of half32–27

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis18/2427821
Tyler Boyd0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard241195.01
Will Levis8101.30
Julius Chestnut133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley56930
Chig Okonkwo11701
Tyler Boyd66550
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine25481
Tony Pollard35100
Julius Chestnut1120
Nick Vannett0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud20/3324722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon14221.60
C.J. Stroud3186.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins59921
Tank Dell35720
Cade Stover34261
Joe Mixon56230
Dalton Schultz22200
Robert Woods1180
John Metchie III1360
Xavier Hutchinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.18
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.68