Closing spread
HOU -8
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play-0.038
- 40.4%Success rate39.1%
- -0.056EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.120
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.11CPOE-2.77
- 38.0%Third-down rate38.2%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.35Points / drive1.84
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 18/24 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 24 | 119 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Will Levis | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 1 | 70 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 20/33 | 247 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 14 | 22 | 1.6 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 5 | 9 | 92 | 1 |
| Tank Dell | 3 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.18
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.68