Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
34
Model margin
-2.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.167EPA / play-0.066
- 38.0%Success rate41.2%
- -0.147EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.204EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.9%
- -4.69CPOE-0.94
- 30.1%Third-down rate37.1%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 1.17Points / drive1.46
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 17/28 | 178 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeff Driskel | 3/4 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 16 | 32 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 9 | 34 | 1 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Hairston | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 14/23 | 99 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 23 | 126 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Malik Willis | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
6.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.4%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.66
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.47