2022 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

19·14

Titans

Tennessee

QB Malik Willis

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 22°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

34

Model margin

-2.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • -0.167EPA / play-0.066
  • 38.0%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.147EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.204EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -4.69CPOE-0.94
  • 30.1%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 1.17Points / drive1.46
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W8TEN @ HOU17–10TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
TENQ1 15:003-9Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:5532Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:57665Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 8:481174Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 2:3449Punt7–7
HOUQ2 15:001457Field goal10–7
TENQ2 6:50512Punt10–7
HOUQ2 3:533-1Punt10–7
TENQ2 2:201035Punt10–7
HOUQ2 0:0900End of half10–7
HOUQ3 15:00725Turnover on downs10–7
TENQ3 12:25652Touchdown10–14
HOUQ3 8:5132Turnover10–14
TENQ3 7:0142Turnover on downs10–14
HOUQ3 6:0634Punt10–14
TENQ3 3:5539Punt10–14
HOUQ3 1:4130Punt10–14
TENQ3 1:15527Turnover10–14
HOUQ4 13:441049Field goal13–14
TENQ4 7:2532Punt13–14
HOUQ4 5:07573Touchdown19–14
TENQ4 2:52630Turnover19–14
HOUQ4 1:3331Punt19–14
TENQ4 1:10638Turnover19–14

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills17/2817811
Jeff Driskel3/44000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Royce Freeman16322.00
Dare Ogunbowale8283.50
Davis Mills482.00
Jeff Driskel221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Phillip Dorsett33450
Jordan Akins33390
Amari Rodgers12370
Brandin Cooks49341
Chris Moore24250
Brevin Jordan22210
Rex Burkhead2270
Royce Freeman1160
Jeff Driskel1140
Teagan Quitoriano0100
Troy Hairston1100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Malik Willis14/239902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry231265.51
Malik Willis7436.11
Treylon Burks11515.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods45300
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine23230
Austin Hooper23200
Hassan Haskins22170
Chig Okonkwo12100
Derrick Henry2200
Treylon Burks0200
Geoff Swaim11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

6.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.4%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.66
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.47