Closing spread
HOU -7.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+7.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.008
- 37.9%Success rate41.7%
- -0.165EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.149
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.2%
- -3.50CPOE-1.68
- 32.0%Third-down rate37.4%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 1.36Points / drive2.05
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 10/26 | 108 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Cam Ward | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elic Ayomanor | 2 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 22/28 | 233 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 4 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 4 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Jayden Higgins | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.9%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.21