2025 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

0·26

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -7.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+7.2est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • -0.148EPA / play-0.008
  • 37.9%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.165EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.149
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -3.50CPOE-1.68
  • 32.0%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
  • 1.36Points / drive2.05
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU
2022 · W8TEN @ HOU17–10TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
TENQ1 15:00649Missed field goal0–0
HOUQ1 11:411135Field goal0–3
TENQ1 4:4933Punt0–3
HOUQ1 3:051060Field goal0–6
TENQ2 13:28514Punt0–6
HOUQ2 10:2037Punt0–6
TENQ2 8:4734Punt0–6
HOUQ2 7:441025Punt0–6
TENQ2 1:48953Missed field goal0–6
HOUQ3 15:00733Missed field goal0–6
TENQ3 10:42511Punt0–6
HOUQ3 7:4615102Touchdown0–12
TENQ4 14:55622Turnover0–12
HOUQ4 12:38644Touchdown0–19
TENQ4 9:2669Turnover on downs0–19
HOUQ4 6:48541Touchdown0–26
TENQ4 4:5138Punt0–26
HOUQ4 3:5536Punt0–26
TENQ4 1:5032End of half0–26

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward10/2610801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard14644.60
Cam Ward22211.00
Julius Chestnut100.00
Chimere Dike1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Elic Ayomanor27440
Calvin Ridley23300
Tony Pollard33120
Gunnar Helm11120
Van Jefferson1160
Chig Okonkwo1340
Tyler Lockett0400
Julius Chestnut0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud22/2823320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Woody Marks17694.11
Nick Chubb13473.60
C.J. Stroud4112.80
Jaylin Noel122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins46790
Woody Marks45501
Dalton Schultz56300
Jayden Higgins11241
Christian Kirk34200
Xavier Hutchinson23170
Nick Chubb22150
Jaylin Noel11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.9%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.21