Closing spread
ATL -4
Total
42
Model margin
+1.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play-0.096
- 40.6%Success rate41.1%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.205
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- 43.8%Third-down rate38.7%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.65Points / drive1.11
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed+0.032
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 11/23 | 112 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 22 | 100 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 22/33 | 259 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 12 | 88 | 7.3 | 2 |
| Aaron Stecker | 16 | 86 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.74