Closing spread
BAL -4
Total
33.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play-0.109
- 39.5%Success rate38.7%
- -0.097EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.183EPA / rush-0.179
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- 32.4%Third-down rate39.5%
- 38.1%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.22Points / drive1.20
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 16/30 | 147 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| William Green | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 23/31 | 213 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 8 | 92 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 24 | 59 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.34