Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.023
- 42.4%Success rate40.5%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.143
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- 39.9%Third-down rate41.9%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.87Points / drive1.55
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 13:22 | 3 | 24 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 12:15 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:36 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 8:24 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 4:47 | 8 | 37 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 0:28 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q2 14:25 | 4 | 33 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q2 11:45 | 5 | 10 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| DAL | Q2 8:42 | 16 | 83 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| NYG | Q2 0:40 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DAL | Q2 0:13 | 1 | 10 | Missed field goal | 6–7 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| NYG | Q3 13:48 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| DAL | Q3 12:14 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–7 |
| NYG | Q3 10:40 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| DAL | Q3 9:44 | 4 | 4 | Missed field goal | 6–7 |
| NYG | Q3 8:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DAL | Q3 6:32 | 14 | 89 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| NYG | Q4 12:44 | 5 | 53 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| DAL | Q4 9:03 | 9 | 18 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| NYG | Q4 4:40 | 12 | 73 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| DAL | Q4 1:18 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–13 |
| NYG | Q4 0:52 | 2 | 52 | Touchdown | 13–13 |
| DAL | Q4 0:19 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–13 |
| DAL | OT | 8 | 49 | Field goal | 13–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 14/30 | 215 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 26/37 | 312 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 21 | 47 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tyson Thompson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.22