Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.023
- 42.4%Success rate40.5%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.143
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- 39.9%Third-down rate41.9%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.87Points / drive1.55
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 14/30 | 215 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 26/37 | 312 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 21 | 47 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tyson Thompson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.22