Closing spread
PK
Total
50.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:58 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:30 | 8 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:42 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:21 | 8 | 55 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:02 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q1 0:57 | 10 | 59 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| LV | Q2 10:25 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q2 8:56 | 11 | 84 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| LV | Q2 2:39 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 24–7 |
| LAC | Q2 1:21 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–7 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 24–7 |
| LAC | Q3 13:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 24–7 |
| LV | Q3 10:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 24–7 |
| LAC | Q3 8:58 | 5 | 41 | Field goal | 27–7 |
| LV | Q3 6:02 | 13 | 76 | Touchdown | 27–14 |
| LAC | Q3 0:34 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 27–14 |
| LV | Q4 11:48 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 27–14 |
| LAC | Q4 10:58 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 27–14 |
| LV | Q4 9:50 | 13 | 80 | Turnover on downs | 27–14 |
| LAC | Q4 4:58 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 27–14 |
| LV | Q4 4:02 | 5 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 27–14 |
| LAC | Q4 3:04 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 27–14 |
| LV | Q4 1:51 | 4 | 21 | End of half | 27–14 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+3.20
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.