2005 · Week 7

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Drew Bledsoe

10·13

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 55°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+6.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.156
  • 40.5%Success rate49.3%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback+0.205
  • -0.143EPA / rush+0.100
  • 7.7%Explosive rate11.2%
  • 41.9%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate78.4%
  • 1.55Points / drive2.39
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%
  • -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.046

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13SEA @ DAL35–41DAL
2020 · W3DAL @ SEA31–38SEA
2018 · playoffsSEA @ DAL22–24DAL
2018 · W3DAL @ SEA13–24SEA
2017 · W16SEA @ DAL21–12SEA
2015 · W8SEA @ DAL13–12SEA
2014 · W6DAL @ SEA30–23DAL
2012 · W2DAL @ SEA7–27SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–SEA
SEAQ1 15:001062Turnover0–0
DALQ1 10:21723Punt0–0
SEAQ1 7:0039Punt0–0
DALQ1 5:321074Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 1:03715Punt7–0
DALQ2 14:22835Punt7–0
SEAQ2 10:3038Punt7–0
DALQ2 9:08512Punt7–0
SEAQ2 6:463-1Punt7–0
DALQ2 5:2149Punt7–0
SEAQ2 3:1634Punt7–0
DALQ2 2:23415Turnover7–0
SEAQ2 1:43823Field goal7–3
DALQ2 0:3300End of half7–3
DALQ3 15:00519Punt7–3
SEAQ3 11:23724Punt7–3
DALQ3 8:2831Punt7–3
SEAQ3 6:39825Punt7–3
DALQ3 3:08633Punt7–3
DALQ4 14:473-1Missed field goal7–3
SEAQ4 13:1337Punt7–3
DALQ4 11:4038Punt7–3
SEAQ4 9:42740Punt7–3
DALQ4 6:39426Punt7–3
SEAQ4 3:4524Turnover7–3
DALQ4 3:0439Field goal10–3
SEAQ4 2:06869Touchdown10–10
DALQ4 0:40413Turnover10–13
SEAQ4 0:0500Field goal10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe13/2413612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber22954.30
Tyson Thompson6345.70
Anthony Thomas6193.20
Peerless Price199.00
Drew Bledsoe310.30

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck23/4222412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander21612.90
Matt Hasselbeck11111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.2%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.96
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.52