Closing spread
MIN -2
Total
46
Model margin
+0.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.074
- 42.0%Success rate40.6%
- -0.003EPA / dropback-0.009
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.185
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.1%
- 41.1%Third-down rate33.7%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.29Points / drive1.46
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.052EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 28/36 | 315 | 2 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 23/31 | 280 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.39
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.36