Closing spread
IND -14.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.188EPA / play-0.099
- 51.2%Success rate40.0%
- +0.339EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.098
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.2%
- 50.1%Third-down rate34.0%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 2.60Points / drive1.30
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed+0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/27 | 237 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 21 | 139 | 6.6 | 2 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 6/9 | 48 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 28 | 98 | 3.5 | 1 |
| David Carr | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.15