Closing spread
IND -14.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.188EPA / play-0.099
- 51.2%Success rate40.0%
- +0.339EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.098
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.2%
- 50.1%Third-down rate34.0%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 2.60Points / drive1.30
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed+0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 12:07 | 2 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 10:52 | 1 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 10:08 | 11 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 3:42 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 2:02 | 9 | 44 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q2 12:57 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| IND | Q2 12:45 | 3 | 47 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q2 11:22 | 14 | 74 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| IND | Q2 3:15 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| HOU | Q2 3:08 | 6 | 34 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| IND | Q2 0:30 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–14 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| HOU | Q3 11:18 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 21–14 |
| IND | Q3 7:43 | 16 | 76 | Field goal | 24–14 |
| HOU | Q3 0:17 | 3 | -19 | Punt | 24–14 |
| IND | Q4 13:22 | 4 | 50 | Touchdown | 31–14 |
| HOU | Q4 11:38 | 6 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 38–20 |
| HOU | Q4 8:07 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 38–20 |
| IND | Q4 7:56 | 11 | 64 | End of half | 38–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/27 | 237 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 21 | 139 | 6.6 | 2 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 6/9 | 48 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 28 | 98 | 3.5 | 1 |
| David Carr | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.15