Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play-0.225
- 48.1%Success rate42.6%
- +0.098EPA / dropback-0.409
- +0.030EPA / rush+0.116
- 8.9%Explosive rate13.0%
- +3.16CPOE-5.06
- 43.8%Third-down rate30.0%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.80Points / drive1.99
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
48.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.49
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.27