2026 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

17·19

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -1.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • +0.031EPA / play-0.063
  • 43.4%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.138EPA / dropback-0.130
  • -0.167EPA / rush+0.030
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +2.27CPOE-4.20
  • 37.8%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 60.4%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.19Points / drive1.93
  • 0.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU
2022 · W1IND @ HOU20–20Tie

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
HOUQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:2048Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 11:1749Turnover on downs0–0
INDQ1 9:421253Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 4:2864Punt0–3
INDQ1 1:391269Touchdown0–10
HOUQ2 11:081352Touchdown7–10
INDQ2 4:30825Field goal7–13
HOUQ2 1:0333Punt7–13
INDQ2 0:3014End of half7–13
INDQ3 15:00745Turnover7–13
HOUQ3 11:3338Punt7–13
INDQ3 9:513-3Punt7–13
HOUQ3 7:4836Punt7–13
INDQ3 6:161451Field goal7–16
HOUQ4 12:43971Field goal10–16
INDQ4 7:33519Turnover10–16
HOUQ4 4:40754Touchdown17–16
INDQ4 1:48529Field goal17–19
HOUQ4 0:16317End of half17–19

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud16/2716710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery11333.00
Woody Marks5153.01
C.J. Stroud2105.00
Jaylin Noel188.00
Xavier Hutchinson242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Hutchinson36510
Dalton Schultz33300
Kayshon Boutte22210
Jared Wayne14200
Jaylin Noel22170
David Montgomery22150
Foster Moreau2471
Woody Marks1160
Lewis Bond0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones24/3623511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor23683.00
Seth McGowan4143.50
Daniel Jones351.70
Tyler Warren122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Downs511770
Keenan Allen69631
Tyler Warren910550
Laquon Treadwell11200
Mo Alie-Cox11160
Jonathan Taylor2340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.22