Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
49
Model margin
+1.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Texans
- OutM.J. StewartSKnee· DNP
Colts
- OutJosh DownsWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableMatt GayKHernia· DNP
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.045
- 39.1%Success rate40.6%
- +0.008EPA / dropback-0.025
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- -2.77CPOE-5.38
- 38.2%Third-down rate37.8%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.84Points / drive1.87
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 11:40 | 7 | 26 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q1 6:44 | 3 | 73 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q1 5:12 | 6 | 38 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| IND | Q1 1:37 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 6–7 |
| HOU | Q2 15:00 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 12–7 |
| IND | Q2 11:31 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 12–7 |
| HOU | Q2 9:50 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 12–7 |
| IND | Q2 8:29 | 11 | 47 | Turnover | 12–7 |
| HOU | Q2 2:39 | 8 | 61 | End of half | 12–7 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 37 | Field goal | 15–7 |
| IND | Q3 10:55 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 15–7 |
| HOU | Q3 8:55 | 6 | 3 | Punt | 15–13 |
| IND | Q3 5:43 | 1 | 5 | Touchdown | 15–13 |
| HOU | Q3 5:40 | 14 | 70 | Touchdown | 22–13 |
| IND | Q4 13:41 | 5 | 65 | Touchdown | 22–20 |
| HOU | Q4 12:12 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 29–20 |
| IND | Q4 4:42 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 29–27 |
| HOU | Q4 2:14 | 6 | 32 | End of half | 29–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 24/32 | 234 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 30 | 159 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Tank Dell | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 6 | 8 | 117 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 6 | 33 | 2 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 9/19 | 212 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 3 | 125 | 1 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 54 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.64