Closing spread
HOU -5
Total
45
Model margin
-1.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.038
- 40.6%Success rate39.1%
- -0.025EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.120
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- -5.38CPOE-2.77
- 37.8%Third-down rate38.2%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.87Points / drive1.84
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 10/32 | 175 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 20 | 105 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Anthony Richardson | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 4 | 9 | 109 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 25/37 | 285 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 25 | 102 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 4 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.04