2024 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Joe Flacco

20·23

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -5

Total

45

Model margin

-1.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • -0.045EPA / play-0.038
  • 40.6%Success rate39.1%
  • -0.025EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.120
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -5.38CPOE-2.77
  • 37.8%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.84
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU
2022 · W1IND @ HOU20–20Tie

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00841Field goal0–3
INDQ1 11:15512Field goal3–3
HOUQ1 10:0038Punt3–3
INDQ1 8:14526Punt3–3
HOUQ1 6:20520Punt3–3
INDQ1 3:02481Touchdown10–3
HOUQ1 0:501070Touchdown10–10
INDQ2 10:043-8Punt10–10
HOUQ2 8:3230Punt10–10
INDQ2 8:043-7Punt10–10
HOUQ2 7:2932Punt10–10
INDQ2 5:4632Punt10–10
HOUQ2 4:54828Punt10–10
INDQ2 1:0037Turnover10–16
HOUQ2 0:2317Touchdown10–17
INDQ2 0:1700End of half10–17
INDQ3 15:00639Punt10–17
HOUQ3 11:19776Field goal10–20
INDQ3 7:521062Field goal13–20
HOUQ3 2:01859Field goal13–23
INDQ4 12:211170Touchdown20–23
HOUQ4 8:321249Turnover20–23
INDQ4 3:053-8Punt20–23
HOUQ4 1:5433Punt20–23
INDQ4 0:54628Turnover20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Richardson10/3217511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor201055.31
Anthony Richardson6457.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Downs491091
Michael Pittman16160
Trey Sermon11140
Jonathan Taylor11120
Alec Pierce14110
Adonai Mitchell1490
Kylen Granson1240
Mo Alie-Cox0100
Tyler Goodson0100
Will Mallory0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud25/3728510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon251024.11
Dare Ogunbowale144.00
Dameon Pierce144.00
Stefon Diggs1-4-4.00
C.J. Stroud1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs59810
Dalton Schultz46520
Tank Dell44351
Joe Mixon46320
John Metchie III34290
Xavier Hutchinson11190
Cade Stover23190
Robert Woods22180
Dare Ogunbowale0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +52.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.3%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.81
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.04