2023 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

23·19

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Gardner Minshew

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -1.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.025
  • 41.4%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.108
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -1.53CPOE-3.92
  • 37.7%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.78
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU
2022 · W1IND @ HOU20–20Tie

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
INDQ1 15:001156Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 9:15175Touchdown7–3
INDQ1 9:0632Punt7–3
HOUQ1 7:23618Punt7–3
INDQ1 3:31414Punt7–3
HOUQ1 2:29524Punt7–3
INDQ2 14:51516Punt7–3
HOUQ2 11:11620Punt7–3
INDQ2 7:5138Punt7–3
HOUQ2 6:23857Touchdown14–3
INDQ2 1:57737Field goal14–6
HOUQ2 0:3533Punt14–6
INDQ2 0:0710End of half14–6
HOUQ3 15:00423Punt14–6
INDQ3 11:46487Touchdown14–14
HOUQ3 9:5632Punt14–14
INDQ3 8:58641Missed field goal14–14
HOUQ3 5:37420Field goal17–14
INDQ3 3:39944Field goal17–17
HOUQ4 13:331379Touchdown23–17
INDQ4 6:201255Turnover on downs23–17
HOUQ4 1:034-15Safety23–19
INDQ4 0:0100Turnover23–19

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud20/2626420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary24632.61
C.J. Stroud3206.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins991951
Dalton Schultz57420
Xavier Hutchinson1460
Eric Saubert1150
John Metchie III1250
Devin Singletary1120

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew13/2414100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor301886.31
Zack Moss6305.00
Gardner Minshew199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Downs33480
Michael Pittman56440
Kylen Granson11230
Mo Alie-Cox24180
Jonathan Taylor2280
Tyler Goodson0200
Alec Pierce0400
Will Mallory0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.2%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.15