Closing spread
HOU -1.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.025
- 41.4%Success rate41.5%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.108
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- -1.53CPOE-3.92
- 37.7%Third-down rate34.4%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.91Points / drive1.78
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 20/26 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 24 | 63 | 2.6 | 1 |
| C.J. Stroud | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 9 | 9 | 195 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 13/24 | 141 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 30 | 188 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Zack Moss | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.15