2025 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Riley Leonard

30·38

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -9.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+8.5est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • +0.083EPA / play-0.008
  • 46.6%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback+0.083
  • +0.052EPA / rush-0.149
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +0.62CPOE-1.68
  • 43.0%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
  • 2.74Points / drive2.05
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU
2022 · W1IND @ HOU20–20Tie

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00749Field goal0–3
INDQ1 12:05369Touchdown7–3
HOUQ1 10:36731Field goal7–6
INDQ1 6:361039Field goal10–6
HOUQ1 0:341382Touchdown10–13
INDQ2 9:342-13Turnover10–19
HOUQ2 8:3812Touchdown10–20
INDQ2 8:3233Punt10–20
HOUQ2 7:05723Punt10–20
INDQ2 3:59962Touchdown17–20
HOUQ2 1:25838Field goal17–23
INDQ3 15:00465Touchdown24–23
HOUQ3 13:0533Punt24–23
INDQ3 11:2336Punt24–23
HOUQ3 10:19747Field goal24–26
INDQ3 6:531259Field goal27–26
HOUQ3 1:42516Punt27–26
INDQ4 14:47516Turnover27–26
HOUQ4 12:2838Field goal27–29
INDQ4 11:151456Field goal30–29
HOUQ4 2:39640Field goal30–32
INDQ4 0:121-8Opp touchdown30–38

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Riley Leonard21/3427021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DJ Giddens8303.80
Jonathan Taylor14261.90
Riley Leonard3217.01
Tyler Goodson133.00
Ameer Abdullah111.00
Josh Downs1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce471322
Josh Downs44610
Tyler Warren58260
Ameer Abdullah22240
Mo Alie-Cox34220
Jonathan Taylor22130
Michael Pittman24110
Ashton Dulin0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud14/2316910
Davis Mills3/93600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
British Brooks13634.80
Woody Marks10484.80
Davis Mills11212.00
C.J. Stroud252.51
Dare Ogunbowale133.00
Jawhar Jordan530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Hutchinson59840
Dalton Schultz44730
Jayden Higgins25231
Jaylin Noel11130
Cade Stover1290
Dare Ogunbowale1260
Woody Marks2300
Christian Kirk12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.55.5%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.9%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.15
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+8.47