Closing spread
HOU -9.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+8.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play-0.008
- 46.6%Success rate41.7%
- +0.104EPA / dropback+0.083
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.2%
- +0.62CPOE-1.68
- 43.0%Third-down rate37.4%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 2.74Points / drive2.05
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Leonard | 21/34 | 270 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Giddens | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 14 | 26 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Riley Leonard | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 7 | 132 | 2 |
| Josh Downs | 4 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 5 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 14/23 | 169 | 1 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 3/9 | 36 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| British Brooks | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jawhar Jordan | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Hutchinson | 5 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 4 | 73 | 0 |
| Jayden Higgins | 2 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.9%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.54
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.15
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+8.47