2025 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

20·16

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • -0.008EPA / play+0.083
  • 41.7%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.149EPA / rush+0.052
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -1.68CPOE+0.62
  • 37.4%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 48.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.74
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU
2022 · W1IND @ HOU20–20Tie

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
INDQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:071464Field goal3–0
INDQ1 7:5530Punt3–0
HOUQ1 5:34411Punt3–0
INDQ1 2:48518Punt3–0
HOUQ1 0:36416Punt3–0
INDQ2 14:12754Turnover on downs3–0
HOUQ2 10:1110Turnover3–0
INDQ2 10:05342Touchdown3–6
HOUQ2 8:41862Touchdown10–6
INDQ2 5:08635Punt10–6
HOUQ2 1:51733Turnover on downs10–6
HOUQ3 15:001348Field goal13–6
INDQ3 6:471157Touchdown13–13
HOUQ3 2:511362Touchdown20–13
INDQ4 12:38826Field goal20–16
HOUQ4 8:40753Turnover on downs20–16
INDQ4 4:45847Turnover on downs20–16
HOUQ4 1:45515End of half20–16

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud22/3527601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Woody Marks19643.40
Nick Chubb9343.81
Nico Collins177.01
Cade Stover430.80
C.J. Stroud100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins510980
Jayden Higgins55650
Dalton Schultz78550
Xavier Hutchinson25390
Cade Stover22160
Woody Marks1130
Jaylin Noel0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones14/2720120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor21854.00
Daniel Jones111.00
Tyler Warren100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce45781
Josh Downs26440
Jonathan Taylor35360
Tyler Warren34221
Michael Pittman14130
Andrew Ogletree1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.08