Closing spread
IND -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play+0.083
- 41.7%Success rate46.6%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.149EPA / rush+0.052
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- -1.68CPOE+0.62
- 37.4%Third-down rate43.0%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 2.05Points / drive2.74
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 22/35 | 276 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 19 | 64 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Cade Stover | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 5 | 10 | 98 | 0 |
| Jayden Higgins | 5 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 7 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 14/27 | 201 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 85 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 5 | 78 | 1 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 3 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.54
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.08