Closing spread
IND -1
Total
40
Model margin
+2.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.023
- 41.5%Success rate41.4%
- +0.030EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.164
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- -3.92CPOE-1.53
- 34.4%Third-down rate37.7%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.78Points / drive1.91
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 19/23 | 171 | 1 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson | 6/10 | 56 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 18 | 88 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Anthony Richardson | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 2 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 12 | 56 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 3 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 30/47 | 384 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 15 | 31 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 7 | 9 | 146 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 6 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 7 | 10 | 72 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.56
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.29