Closing spread
IND -3
Total
38
Model margin
+0.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.167EPA / play-0.154
- 38.0%Success rate40.3%
- -0.147EPA / dropback-0.139
- -0.204EPA / rush-0.181
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- -4.69CPOE-1.42
- 30.1%Third-down rate33.3%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
- 1.17Points / drive1.33
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 22/38 | 298 | 3 | 2 |
| Jeff Driskel | 2/2 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dare Ogunbowale | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 6 | 106 | 1 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 3 | 4 | 83 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 4 | 8 | 70 | 2 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Troy Hairston | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Ehlinger | 23/35 | 209 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 18 | 114 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Deon Jackson | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Sam Ehlinger | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deon Jackson | 6 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 6 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Jelani Woods | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.76
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.26