2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

32·31

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Sam Ehlinger

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

38

Model margin

+0.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • -0.167EPA / play-0.154
  • 38.0%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.147EPA / dropback-0.139
  • -0.204EPA / rush-0.181
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -4.69CPOE-1.42
  • 30.1%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
  • 1.17Points / drive1.33
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W1IND @ HOU20–20Tie

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
HOUQ1 15:00775Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 11:1700Field goal7–0
HOUQ1 11:113-1Field goal10–0
INDQ1 9:401269Touchdown10–7
HOUQ1 3:56630Punt10–7
INDQ1 0:523-2Punt10–7
HOUQ2 14:02632Turnover16–7
INDQ2 10:4110Opp touchdown17–7
INDQ2 10:301065Turnover17–7
HOUQ2 4:46837Punt17–7
INDQ2 1:32733End of half17–7
INDQ3 15:00782Turnover on downs17–7
HOUQ3 11:51612Punt17–7
INDQ3 9:28629Touchdown17–14
HOUQ3 6:40575Touchdown24–14
INDQ3 3:5138Punt24–14
HOUQ3 1:4632Opp touchdown24–21
HOUQ3 0:5232Turnover24–21
INDQ4 15:00753Touchdown24–28
HOUQ4 10:3038Punt24–28
INDQ4 8:57940Field goal24–31
HOUQ4 3:331488Touchdown32–31
INDQ4 0:50721End of half32–31

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills22/3829832
Jeff Driskel2/21300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dare Ogunbowale11333.00
Royce Freeman7152.10
Jeff Driskel372.30
Davis Mills166.00
Chris Moore1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks561061
Teagan Quitoriano34830
Jordan Akins48702
Chris Moore26220
Amari Rodgers34220
Dare Ogunbowale5650
Royce Freeman1120
Rex Burkhead1210
Troy Hairston0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Ehlinger23/3520922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss181146.31
Deon Jackson8354.40
Parris Campbell12626.00
Sam Ehlinger5214.20
Michael Pittman100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deon Jackson68750
Parris Campbell69420
Alec Pierce34420
Michael Pittman35301
Jelani Woods1490
Zack Moss3370
Mo Alie-Cox1141

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.76
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.26