Closing spread
KC -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.040
- 45.7%Success rate40.9%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.007
- +0.042EPA / rush-0.086
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- 43.7%Third-down rate35.3%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 2.01Points / drive1.48
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed-0.029
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. MIA are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 20/34 | 289 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 23 | 93 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 18 | 90 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Eddie Kennison | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 11/29 | 125 | 0 | 1 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 1/1 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 8 | 95 | 11.9 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.63