Closing spread
MIA -6
Total
43
Model margin
+2.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.019
- 42.6%Success rate48.7%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.063
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.58CPOE+2.14
- 40.0%Third-down rate41.5%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.99Points / drive1.97
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. MIA are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/25 | 186 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knile Davis | 32 | 132 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Cyrus Gray | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe McKnight | 6 | 7 | 64 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 21/43 | 205 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 15 | 108 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 12 | 74 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 7 | 25 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Gibson | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.99