2014 · Week 3

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

34·15

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

MIA -6

Total

43

Model margin

+2.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.026EPA / play+0.019
  • 42.6%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.065
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.063
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -1.58CPOE+2.14
  • 40.0%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.97
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 8–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.1 points. MIA are 4-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3KC @ MIA24–10KC
2023 · playoffsMIA @ KC7–26KC
2023 · W9MIA @ KC14–21KC
2020 · W14KC @ MIA33–27KC
2017 · W16MIA @ KC13–29KC
2011 · W9MIA @ KC31–3MIA
2008 · W16MIA @ KC38–31MIA
2006 · W10KC @ MIA10–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00620Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:19733Punt0–0
MIAQ1 8:18833Punt0–0
KCQ1 5:063-8Punt0–0
MIAQ1 3:43417Punt0–0
KCQ1 1:5978Punt0–0
MIAQ2 12:21553Missed field goal0–0
KCQ2 9:52662Touchdown7–0
MIAQ2 6:38513Punt7–0
KCQ2 4:17876Touchdown14–0
MIAQ2 1:35774Field goal14–3
KCQ3 15:0031Turnover14–3
MIAQ3 13:28414Touchdown14–10
KCQ3 12:071066Touchdown21–10
MIAQ3 6:3630Field goal21–13
KCQ3 5:5432Punt21–13
MIAQ3 4:1236Punt21–15
KCQ3 2:421-1Safety21–15
MIAQ3 2:38429Punt21–15
KCQ3 0:59624Punt21–15
MIAQ4 12:44617Punt21–15
KCQ4 9:14944Touchdown27–15
MIAQ4 4:35927Turnover on downs27–15
KCQ4 3:052-1Turnover27–15
MIAQ4 2:52519Turnover on downs27–15
KCQ4 2:01636Touchdown34–15
MIAQ4 0:13110End of half34–15

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith19/2518630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knile Davis321324.11
Cyrus Gray4184.51
Alex Smith2178.50
Joe McKnight133.00
A.J. Jenkins100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe McKnight67642
Travis Kelce34361
Dwayne Bowe35320
Anthony Fasano22230
Junior Hemingway22180
Donnie Avery23120
Knile Davis0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill21/4320510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller151087.20
Daniel Thomas2157.50
Mike Wallace11212.00
Ryan Tannehill199.00
Damien Williams1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace512740
Brian Hartline37251
Lamar Miller45240
Jarvis Landry37240
Daniel Thomas12210
Charles Clay34210
Rishard Matthews11130
Brandon Gibson1430
Dion Sims0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.99