2023 · WC

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

7·26

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · -4°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

KC -4.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.095EPA / play+0.021
  • 47.3%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.111
  • 11.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +4.40CPOE+1.52
  • 42.5%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 2.34Points / drive1.89
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 8–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.1 points. KC are 7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3KC @ MIA24–10KC
2023 · W9MIA @ KC14–21KC
2020 · W14KC @ MIA33–27KC
2017 · W16MIA @ KC13–29KC
2014 · W3KC @ MIA34–15KC
2011 · W9MIA @ KC31–3MIA
2008 · W16MIA @ KC38–31MIA
2006 · W10KC @ MIA10–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–KC
KCQ1 15:00969Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 11:0538Punt0–7
KCQ1 8:3534Punt0–7
MIAQ1 7:07833Turnover0–7
KCQ1 3:03948Field goal0–10
MIAQ2 14:51262Touchdown7–10
KCQ2 14:011282Field goal7–13
MIAQ2 7:36621Turnover on downs7–13
KCQ2 4:3137Punt7–13
MIAQ2 3:023-5Punt7–13
KCQ2 1:43747Field goal7–16
MIAQ2 0:18317End of half7–16
MIAQ3 15:0036Punt7–16
KCQ3 13:211269Field goal7–19
MIAQ3 7:4979Punt7–19
KCQ3 3:071664Touchdown7–26
MIAQ4 11:061058Turnover on downs7–26
KCQ4 6:2235Punt7–26
MIAQ4 5:201227Turnover on downs7–26
KCQ4 3:44514Turnover7–26
MIAQ4 1:08428End of half7–26

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa20/3919911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert8334.10
Tua Tagovailoa3258.30
Jaylen Waddle199.00
De'Von Achane691.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill58621
Cedrick Wilson Jr.37370
River Cracraft23330
Jaylen Waddle25310
De'Von Achane36210
Durham Smythe34120
Jeff Wilson1260
Braxton Berrios0100
Raheem Mostert12-30

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes23/4126210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco24893.71
Patrick Mahomes24120.50
Clyde Edwards-Helaire7213.00
Mecole Hardman1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashee Rice8121301
Travis Kelce710710
Justin Watson22200
Noah Gray11200
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1280
Richie James1260
Clyde Edwards-Helaire1150
Mecole Hardman1330
Isiah Pacheco11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.61