Closing spread
KC -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play+0.021
- 47.3%Success rate43.8%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.111
- 11.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- +4.40CPOE+1.52
- 42.5%Third-down rate44.9%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 2.34Points / drive1.89
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. KC are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 20/39 | 199 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/41 | 262 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 24 | 89 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 41 | 20.5 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 8 | 12 | 130 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.61