Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play-0.051
- 46.3%Success rate42.2%
- +0.181EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.107
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- +4.74CPOE-3.09
- 37.1%Third-down rate37.7%
- 69.4%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.69Points / drive1.48
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. KC are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 26/34 | 235 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cobbs | 2 | 44 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 20/41 | 320 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 12 | 108 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.50