Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play-0.051
- 46.3%Success rate42.2%
- +0.181EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.107
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- +4.74CPOE-3.09
- 37.1%Third-down rate37.7%
- 69.4%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.69Points / drive1.48
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 8–3 since 1999
KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.1 points. KC are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 31 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 14:42 | 5 | 12 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 12:50 | 4 | -7 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:43 | 3 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| MIA | Q1 10:15 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 10–7 |
| KC | Q1 6:52 | 17 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| MIA | Q2 14:05 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| KC | Q2 11:33 | 2 | 77 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| MIA | Q2 10:32 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| KC | Q2 6:12 | 0 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 24–21 |
| MIA | Q2 6:04 | 7 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 24–21 |
| KC | Q2 2:16 | 8 | 95 | Touchdown | 24–28 |
| MIA | Q2 0:50 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 24–28 |
| KC | Q2 0:15 | 3 | 18 | End of half | 24–28 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 74 | Field goal | 24–31 |
| MIA | Q3 9:11 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 31–31 |
| KC | Q3 6:46 | 6 | 53 | Turnover | 31–31 |
| MIA | Q3 3:40 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 31–31 |
| KC | Q4 14:13 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 31–31 |
| MIA | Q4 12:41 | 13 | 85 | Touchdown | 38–31 |
| KC | Q4 4:08 | 4 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 38–31 |
| MIA | Q4 3:35 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 38–31 |
| KC | Q4 1:45 | 4 | 0 | Turnover | 38–31 |
| MIA | Q4 0:52 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 26/34 | 235 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cobbs | 2 | 44 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 20/41 | 320 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 12 | 108 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.50