Closing spread
KC -11
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.082
- 39.2%Success rate44.2%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.198EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.8%
- -0.06CPOE+4.58
- 31.0%Third-down rate39.2%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.31Points / drive2.21
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. KC are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 19/38 | 286 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakeem Grant | 4 | 6 | 107 | 1 |
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 25/39 | 304 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 29 | 91 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 7 | 109 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 8 | 47 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Orson Charles | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.94
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.76