2017 · Week 16

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Cutler

13·29

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 23°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

KC -11

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.125EPA / play+0.082
  • 39.2%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.198EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -0.06CPOE+4.58
  • 31.0%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.31Points / drive2.21
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 8–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.1 points. KC are 7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3KC @ MIA24–10KC
2023 · playoffsMIA @ KC7–26KC
2023 · W9MIA @ KC14–21KC
2020 · W14KC @ MIA33–27KC
2014 · W3KC @ MIA34–15KC
2011 · W9MIA @ KC31–3MIA
2008 · W16MIA @ KC38–31MIA
2006 · W10KC @ MIA10–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–KC
MIAQ1 15:00528Turnover0–0
KCQ1 13:04637Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 9:411264Field goal3–3
KCQ1 3:291080Touchdown3–10
MIAQ2 13:00865Field goal6–10
KCQ2 8:11958Touchdown6–17
MIAQ2 3:37165Touchdown13–17
KCQ2 3:22413Punt13–17
MIAQ2 1:4331Punt13–17
KCQ2 0:49836Field goal13–20
MIAQ2 0:0700End of half13–20
KCQ3 15:00856Field goal13–23
MIAQ3 10:2430Punt13–23
KCQ3 8:49939Turnover on downs13–23
MIAQ3 4:06535Turnover13–23
KCQ3 2:031148Field goal13–26
MIAQ4 12:16556Missed field goal13–26
KCQ4 9:59936Field goal13–29
MIAQ4 3:41721Turnover on downs13–29
KCQ4 2:3233Missed field goal13–29
MIAQ4 1:55611Turnover on downs13–29
KCQ4 1:0500End of half13–29

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler19/3828610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake13574.40
Jakeem Grant133.00
Jay Cutler2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakeem Grant461071
DeVante Parker510630
Kenny Stills46540
Jarvis Landry57510
A.J. Derby15110
Kenyan Drake0300

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith25/3930410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt29913.11
Alex Smith4133.30
Tyreek Hill1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill671090
Travis Kelce48471
Albert Wilson38360
Orson Charles11350
Demetrius Harris47340
Charcandrick West34280
Kareem Hunt44150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.76