Closing spread
KC -8.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-15.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.242
- 40.9%Success rate34.5%
- -0.014EPA / dropback-0.183
- +0.259EPA / rush-0.399
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.9%
- -11.92CPOE-8.85
- 56.3%Third-down rate20.0%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.57Points / drive1.18
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. MIA are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
13.4%
Expected total
36.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-18.03
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-15.81