2026 · Week 3

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

24·10

Dolphins

Miami

QB Malik Willis

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

KC -10

Total

45.5

Model margin

-1.6est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.113EPA / play-0.046
  • 47.1%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.014
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.128
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +1.39CPOE-5.39
  • 39.9%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 56.1%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.82
  • 0.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 8–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.1 points. MIA are 4-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsMIA @ KC7–26KC
2023 · W9MIA @ KC14–21KC
2020 · W14KC @ MIA33–27KC
2017 · W16MIA @ KC13–29KC
2014 · W3KC @ MIA34–15KC
2011 · W9MIA @ KC31–3MIA
2008 · W16MIA @ KC38–31MIA
2006 · W10KC @ MIA10–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–MIA
KCQ1 15:00467Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 12:5419101Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 3:271160Touchdown14–7
MIAQ2 12:58617Turnover on downs14–7
KCQ2 9:22639Turnover on downs14–7
MIAQ2 6:10755Turnover14–7
KCQ2 3:10324Turnover14–7
MIAQ2 1:5058Punt14–7
KCQ2 0:4826End of half14–7
MIAQ3 15:00961Field goal14–10
KCQ3 10:10412Punt14–10
MIAQ3 8:051038Punt14–10
KCQ3 3:111365Field goal17–10
MIAQ4 11:351032Turnover on downs17–10
KCQ4 5:56657Touchdown24–10
MIAQ4 2:5549Turnover24–10
KCQ4 1:5434Missed field goal24–10
MIAQ4 0:5238End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes20/2424621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III18703.91
Emmett Johnson6172.80
Patrick Mahomes111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashee Rice79880
Travis Kelce22591
Noah Gray33390
Tyquan Thornton22220
Xavier Worthy22200
Jalen Royals11110
Brashard Smith1140
Kenneth Walker III2231
Jake Briningstool0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Malik Willis20/3621001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Malik Willis9566.20
Ollie Gordon II17412.41
De'Von Achane3175.70
Malik Washington252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Bell47670
Malik Washington510560
Greg Dulcich57550
Ryan Miller23150
Ollie Gordon II33140
Kevin Coleman Jr.1430
De'Von Achane0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.8%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.60