2023 · Week 9

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

14·21

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Deutsche Bank Park · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

KC -1

Total

51

Model margin

+2.6est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.095EPA / play+0.021
  • 47.3%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.111
  • 11.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +4.40CPOE+1.52
  • 42.5%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 2.34Points / drive1.89
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 8–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.1 points. KC are 7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3KC @ MIA24–10KC
2023 · playoffsMIA @ KC7–26KC
2020 · W14KC @ MIA33–27KC
2017 · W16MIA @ KC13–29KC
2014 · W3KC @ MIA34–15KC
2011 · W9MIA @ KC31–3MIA
2008 · W16MIA @ KC38–31MIA
2006 · W10KC @ MIA10–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–KC
KCQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 12:0348Punt0–7
KCQ1 9:13520Punt0–7
MIAQ1 6:38838Punt0–7
KCQ1 2:04513Punt0–7
MIAQ2 15:00411Punt0–7
KCQ2 13:253-2Punt0–7
MIAQ2 11:50310Punt0–7
KCQ2 10:591595Touchdown0–14
MIAQ2 2:31538Opp touchdown0–21
MIAQ2 0:3335Punt0–21
KCQ2 0:0800End of half0–21
MIAQ3 15:00410Punt0–21
KCQ3 13:14629Punt0–21
MIAQ3 9:57975Touchdown7–21
KCQ3 4:4767Turnover7–21
MIAQ3 2:12523Touchdown14–21
KCQ3 0:22724Punt14–21
MIAQ4 12:071230Punt14–21
KCQ4 4:1039Punt14–21
MIAQ4 2:28644Turnover on downs14–21
KCQ4 1:0000End of half14–21

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa21/3419310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert12857.11
Jaylen Waddle11212.00
Tua Tagovailoa273.50
Jeff Wilson263.00
Salvon Ahmed341.30
Tyreek Hill133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill810620
Jaylen Waddle36420
Jeff Wilson34320
Cedrick Wilson Jr.15311
Durham Smythe33170
Salvon Ahmed2380
Raheem Mostert0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes20/3018520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco16664.10
Patrick Mahomes6244.00
Jerick McKinnon122.00
La'Mical Perine111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Gray33340
Skyy Moore23330
Jerick McKinnon22221
Marquez Valdes-Scantling23220
Kadarius Toney11180
Rashee Rice22171
Justin Watson25150
Travis Kelce34140
Mecole Hardman33100
La'Mical Perine0100
Isiah Pacheco0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.61