2020 · Week 14

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

33·27

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

KC -7.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.177EPA / play+0.026
  • 50.2%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.288EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.124
  • 11.0%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +2.60CPOE+1.23
  • 49.5%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 70.8%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 2.85Points / drive1.99
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 8–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.1 points. MIA are 4-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3KC @ MIA24–10KC
2023 · playoffsMIA @ KC7–26KC
2023 · W9MIA @ KC14–21KC
2017 · W16MIA @ KC13–29KC
2014 · W3KC @ MIA34–15KC
2011 · W9MIA @ KC31–3MIA
2008 · W16MIA @ KC38–31MIA
2006 · W10KC @ MIA10–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
KCQ1 14:02958Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 8:56530Missed field goal0–0
KCQ1 6:563-23Punt0–0
MIAQ1 4:50744Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 1:35237Turnover0–7
MIAQ1 0:371039Field goal0–10
KCQ2 10:14475Touchdown7–10
MIAQ2 8:104-3Punt7–10
KCQ2 5:523-5Punt7–10
MIAQ2 4:10415Turnover7–10
KCQ2 2:52959Touchdown14–10
MIAQ2 0:37317End of half14–10
KCQ3 15:00375Touchdown21–10
MIAQ3 13:5035Opp touchdown28–10
MIAQ3 12:48725Punt28–10
KCQ3 10:20564Turnover28–10
MIAQ3 7:232-7Safety30–10
KCQ3 6:5234Punt30–10
MIAQ3 5:17723Punt30–10
KCQ3 2:37868Turnover30–10
MIAQ4 14:19680Touchdown30–17
KCQ4 12:0335Punt30–17
MIAQ4 10:071767Touchdown30–24
KCQ4 4:15932Field goal33–24
MIAQ4 1:08431Field goal33–27
KCQ4 0:1600End of half33–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes24/3439323

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyreek Hill13232.01
Clyde Edwards-Helaire16322.00
Le'Veon Bell22110.50
Patrick Mahomes591.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce8101361
Tyreek Hill37791
Clyde Edwards-Helaire56590
Sammy Watkins23520
Mecole Hardman33400
Le'Veon Bell23140
Demarcus Robinson11130

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa28/4831621
Lynn Bowden0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAndre Washington13352.70
Tua Tagovailoa6244.01
Patrick Laird4194.80
Lynn Bowden122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lynn Bowden79820
Mack Hollins59660
Mike Gesicki56652
Jakeem Grant35320
Adam Shaheen23260
Durham Smythe23190
DeAndre Washington24170
Malcolm Perry1250
Patrick Laird1140
DeVante Parker0200
Antonio Callaway0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

4.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.71