Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.177EPA / play+0.026
- 50.2%Success rate46.8%
- +0.288EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.124
- 11.0%Explosive rate7.0%
- +2.60CPOE+1.23
- 49.5%Third-down rate38.5%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 2.85Points / drive1.99
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. MIA are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/34 | 393 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 32 | 32.0 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 16 | 32 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 10 | 136 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 7 | 79 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 28/48 | 316 | 2 | 1 |
| Lynn Bowden | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Washington | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Patrick Laird | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynn Bowden | 7 | 9 | 82 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 5 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 6 | 65 | 2 |
| Jakeem Grant | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| DeAndre Washington | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Malcolm Perry | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.71