2011 · Week 9

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

31·3

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

KC -5

Total

41

Model margin

+2.2est.

KC perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.033EPA / play-0.094
  • 39.0%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.149
  • 10.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +2.28CPOE-1.61
  • 33.1%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 53.6%Red-zone TD rate38.2%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.06
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 8–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.1 points. KC are 7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3KC @ MIA24–10KC
2023 · playoffsMIA @ KC7–26KC
2023 · W9MIA @ KC14–21KC
2020 · W14KC @ MIA33–27KC
2017 · W16MIA @ KC13–29KC
2014 · W3KC @ MIA34–15KC
2008 · W16MIA @ KC38–31MIA
2006 · W10KC @ MIA10–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–KC
KCQ1 15:001358Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 7:11641Punt0–3
KCQ1 4:433-1Punt0–3
MIAQ1 3:39647Touchdown7–3
KCQ1 0:46934Punt7–3
MIAQ2 11:20378Touchdown14–3
KCQ2 9:41613Punt14–3
MIAQ2 5:56415Punt14–3
KCQ2 3:12958End of half14–3
MIAQ3 15:0036Punt14–3
KCQ3 13:2171Turnover on downs14–3
MIAQ3 9:55446Touchdown21–3
KCQ3 8:3838Punt21–3
MIAQ3 7:33246Touchdown28–3
KCQ3 6:4132Punt28–3
MIAQ3 5:1338Punt28–3
KCQ3 3:051062Turnover on downs28–3
MIAQ4 14:571158Field goal31–3
KCQ4 8:081175Turnover on downs31–3
MIAQ4 4:2038Punt31–3
KCQ4 3:08933Turnover on downs31–3
MIAQ4 1:4000End of half31–3

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore17/2324430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush13927.11
Daniel Thomas7121.70
Matt Moore430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall8111061
Reggie Bush33500
Charles Clay33500
Anthony Fasano23382
Davone Bess1300

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel20/3925300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jackie Battle14402.90
Matt Cassel9384.20
Dexter McCluster7365.10
Thomas Jones351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Breaston7111150
Dwayne Bowe610880
Jon Baldwin15120
Leonard Pope1290
Jackie Battle1290
Dexter McCluster1480
Keary Colbert1150
Jake O'Connell1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.20