Closing spread
KC -5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.094
- 39.0%Success rate38.8%
- +0.032EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.149
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- +2.28CPOE-1.61
- 33.1%Third-down rate35.7%
- 53.6%Red-zone TD rate38.2%
- 1.63Points / drive1.06
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. KC are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 17/23 | 244 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 13 | 92 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Daniel Thomas | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 8 | 11 | 106 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 3 | 38 | 2 |
| Davone Bess | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 20/39 | 253 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Battle | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston | 7 | 11 | 115 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Keary Colbert | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.20