Closing spread
STL -5
Total
50
Model margin
+4.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. STL are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 18/39 | 230 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.