Closing spread
STL -5
Total
50
Model margin
+4.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. STL are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:36 | 4 | 46 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 9:39 | 11 | 42 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–0 |
| NO | Q1 3:21 | 9 | 34 | Missed field goal | 14–0 |
| LA | Q2 13:34 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–0 |
| NO | Q2 12:09 | 9 | 29 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LA | Q2 8:23 | 9 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 4:25 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 1:31 | 6 | 50 | End of half | 14–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 34 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| NO | Q3 10:33 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LA | Q3 8:47 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q3 7:51 | 10 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 14–7 |
| LA | Q3 3:16 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q3 1:44 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| LA | Q4 13:31 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| NO | Q4 9:33 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| LA | Q4 8:40 | 5 | 42 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| NO | Q4 5:58 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 17–21 |
| LA | Q4 3:25 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–21 |
| NO | Q4 2:56 | 5 | 16 | Opp touchdown | 17–28 |
| NO | Q4 1:55 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 17–28 |
| LA | Q4 1:29 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 18/39 | 230 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.