2018 · Week 9

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

35·45

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

LA -2.5

Total

57.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapSaints
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.156
  • 50.8%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback+0.284
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.011
  • 12.1%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +1.24CPOE+5.42
  • 45.0%Third-down rate46.3%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.63Points / drive2.94
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 14–9 since 1999

RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9NO @ LA10–34RAMS
2024 · W13LA @ NO21–14RAMS
2023 · W16NO @ LA22–30RAMS
2022 · W11LA @ NO20–27NO
2019 · W2NO @ LA9–27RAMS
2018 · playoffsLA @ NO26–23RAMS
2017 · W12NO @ LA20–26RAMS
2016 · W12LA @ NO21–49NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–NO
NOQ1 15:001075Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 9:25671Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 6:04963Touchdown7–14
LAQ1 1:40770Touchdown14–14
NOQ2 14:1210Turnover14–14
LAQ2 14:0249Turnover on downs14–14
NOQ2 13:061087Touchdown14–21
LAQ2 7:35642Missed field goal14–21
NOQ2 3:30659Touchdown14–28
LAQ2 1:0610Turnover14–28
NOQ2 0:59629Touchdown14–35
LAQ2 0:26452Field goal17–35
LAQ3 15:001177Touchdown24–35
NOQ3 9:38631Punt24–35
LAQ3 5:26868Field goal27–35
NOQ3 1:30619Punt27–35
LAQ4 13:27683Touchdown35–35
NOQ4 9:48840Field goal35–38
LAQ4 6:2333Punt35–38
NOQ4 4:50375Touchdown35–45
LAQ4 3:5248Turnover on downs35–45
NOQ4 3:26411End of half35–45

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff28/4039131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley13685.21
Jared Goff3175.70
Robert Woods242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks681141
Cooper Kupp56891
Robert Woods59710
Gerald Everett35480
Tyler Higbee24400
Malcolm Brown11181
Todd Gurley67110

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees25/3634640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara19824.32
Mark Ingram9333.70
Drew Brees4164.00
Taysom Hill2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas12152111
Benjamin Watson34621
Alvin Kamara45341
Tre'Quan Smith23231
Josh Hill24100
Mark Ingram1230
Taysom Hill0100
Dan Arnold0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.42