Closing spread
LA -2.5
Total
57.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.156
- 50.8%Success rate49.9%
- +0.203EPA / dropback+0.284
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.011
- 12.1%Explosive rate10.2%
- +1.24CPOE+5.42
- 45.0%Third-down rate46.3%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.63Points / drive2.94
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 28/40 | 391 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 13 | 68 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 8 | 114 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 6 | 89 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 6 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 25/36 | 346 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 12 | 15 | 211 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 4 | 62 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.42